Predictors of countries' positions on lethal autonomous weapons systems

Abstract

Finding what does (and doesn't) predict countries' positions on lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) could be very valuable in informing the decisions of countries and NGOs. This report tests the predictive power of the following six considerations on countries' positions on banning LAWS: domestic development of LAWS, ethics and human rights, military requirements, public opinion on LAWS, technical capabilities of a country, and trade potential of LAWS. This reports finds a signifi cant correlation between countries' positions on banning LAWS and military requirements, and technical capabilities of a country. On the other hand, it does not find a significant correlation with domestic development of LAWS, ethics and human rights, public opinion, and trade potential. We also construct a multiple linear regression model using variables identifi ed to be significantly correlated and use it to predict the position on banning LAWS of countries which don't have a public position yet. We also discuss some implications of our results for various actors in the LAWS space.