Relative position covariance estimation of resident space objects using extrapolated single propagation technique

Abstract

Due to the ever-increasing space activities, there has been a stark increase in the number of space objects and debris, which include defunct satellites, pieces of space hardware, and launch vehicle remains. This poses a huge threat of collision to every space mission planned and for existing active satellites. It is crucial to have awareness about any possible conjunction event of active satellites with other resident space objects(RSO) so that a fatal collision can be avoided. Estimating the covariance associated with the relative position of the satellite and the RSO in the most accurate and computationally efficient way is the first step toward this. A new way to estimate this covariance using the ESPT Method by utilising TLE data of the space objects is discussed here. In this work, the ESPT Method, Monte Carlo method and Covariance Propagation Method is implemented and the effectiveness of the ESPT method is evaluated and compared with the conventional Monte Carlo approach and the Covariance Propagation method based on their utility and computation time.